Probability of identifying diseases in the yam production system (Dioscorea spp.) in the Montes de María and Sabanas de Sucre regions in the Caribbean of Colombia

Abstract

The cultivation of yam (Dioscorea spp.) was introduced to Colombia in the 16th century and has since expanded in both cultivated area and consumption, particularly in the Caribbean region. However, production sharply declined in 1988 due to an anthracnose outbreak caused by Colletotrichum spp., which can reduce yields by over 50% and has led to losses up to 85% in Colombia. Farmers often associate this disease with wilting and plant death. Despite its significance, there is a lack of studies defining the variables farmers use to identify diseases in yam cultivation. This article aims to identify the elements that enable farmers to recognize the presence of diseases in this crop. Data were collected through a survey administered to 48 randomly selected farmers in the Montes de María and Sabanas de Sucre regions. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a discrete choice econometric Logit model, similar to that used by McFadden. The results indicate that 18% of the surveyed farmers can recognize the presence of diseases, primarily associating wilting and leaf spots with anthracnose in 29% of the sample. Additionally, variables influencing disease identification were identified, such as the average age of the producer (48 years), average experience in yam cultivation (20 years), and an average technological level of 60% in the sample. Furthermore, it was established that the variable most explaining disease identification is the technological level, with a parameter value of 5.700661, indicating that the higher the technological level, the greater the probability that farmers will identify diseases in yam cultivation.