Risk of historical freezes and in the face of change scenarios climate SSP 245 and 585 within the Yesera river basin, department of Tarija

Abstract

The present study will reduce the risk of historical frosts and under two climate change scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 within the Yesera river basin, this meteorological phenomenon causes serious damage in agricultural areas when it occurs at critical stages of crop development, causing economic damage, a situation that affects not only the basin but also at the regional level of the department of Tarija, methodologically the risk is delimited based on the vulnerability (susceptibility) of agricultural areas to the threat of frost, both in a historical period of last 21 years (2000-2021) expressed as the probability of occurrences derived from the quantification of days with records of minimum night temperatures below 0 °C and absence of clouds, using MODIS sensor images, also evaluating change scenarios. climate change in the immediate future until 2030, so frosts occurred in a range of 62 to 265 days with night temperatures below 0°C and from 570 to 2 400 days without the presence of clouds, presenting a threat of occurrence of historical frosts between 0.5 and 33.4 %, in the case of the SSP245 and SSP 585 scenarios, values ​​that range between 0 and 30 % for the first, and between 10 and 40 % for the second, in terms of risk, The highest incidences of frost, both historical and under scenarios, are mainly concentrated in agricultural areas within the basin.